Pistons beat Hawks, end 7 game slide

Big Ben! He’s been proving the doubters and critics wrong all year long, but he provided no bigger impact than in today’s win over the now 12-5 Atlanta Hawks. The Pistons have been hit hard with the injury bug, missing 3 starters in this game (Hamilton, Gordon, Prince) but they fought and clawed their way to a win. Kuester shook up the lineup, inserting Atkins as the starting point (his first start since 07), allowing Stuckey to play his more natural 2 spot, and Maxiell was inserted as the starting power forward, moving Villanueva to the bench.

The Pistons lost Villanueva in the 4^th quarter to a bloodied nose on a hard drive to the rim. Villanueva stayed in to make the free throws, but he had to come out. Villanueva ended up with a broken nose, but it is not yet known if he will miss any games.

Here are the three critical factors that lead to a Pistons victory:

· DE-FENSE: The Pistons did a number on Hawks star Joe Johnson (5-19 FG, 0 FT) and this is due to a couple of reasons. First of all, Stuckey did a good job staying in front of him and denying him good position on his post ups. Secondly, he had a lot of help behind him. On pick and rolls, Ben and Max really stepped out and denied him the open three; on post-ups the Pistons timed their traps perfectly and the rotations were usually pretty solid behind the trap, not allowing Atlanta too many open looks. Johnson did have some open looks that he missed, but for the most part the Pistons contested his shots and kept him out of the lane and kept him off the foul line.

Joe Smith did get off on a variety of dunks, layups and outside jumpers, but everything else was under control and Atlanta did not get many 2^nd chance opportunities. The Pistons also played the passing lanes well, collecting 10 steals, including an important pick by Jerebko on a two on one fast break with the Pistons nursing a 6 point lead with just under 2 minutes remaining.

· Crashing the Boards: The most impressive offensive rebounding performance by the Pistons in years, led by man who has made a living off of keeping possessions alive; Ben Wallace. Big Ben corralled a season high 18 rebounds, including 11 offensive rebounds. In the last two games, Ben was combined for 34 rebounds and 21 offensive boards. That type of performance is reminiscent of Ben circa 2002-2005. But it wasn’t just Ben; Jerebko chipped in with a career high 11 boards, Maxiell grabbed 4 more offensive boards, even Austin Daye chipped in with 4 boards in 11 minutes. For the game the Pistons outrebounded the Hawks 53-27 and 24-6 on the offensive glass.

Points in the paint were a decided edge for the Pistons as well. Atlanta, who is 2^nd in the NBA in points in the paint at 50 per game, were held to 38 points in the paint. That isn’t entirely shocking as the Pistons lead the NBA in fewest points per game allowed (32). But the fact that the Pistons scored 60 points in the paint, when they are last in the NBA in scoring in the paint (33), was extremely shocking. The fact that the Pistons so thoroughly man handled one of the team’s best attacking teams in the paint is certainly a positive sign moving forward.

· Bench Contributions: Will Bynum broke out of his brief slump, contributing 19 of the team’s 42 points off the bench, including 11 huge points in the 4^th quarter. Villanueva contributed 13 points before the broken nose forced him out and Kwame contributed 8 points and 5 boards, including a nice spin move to the hoop out of the post. When this team finally gets healthy (Gordon, Bynum, Charlie V all coming off the bench), this team’s bench will be as potent as any in the league.

NFL: Week 12 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 91-54 (62.7%)

The Marquee Matchups

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

You’ll find it very hard to find a better rivalry game than this. You certainly won’t find a more physical, more violent game than when the Steelers and Ravens hook up. The Steelers and Ravens met 3 times last year, with the Steelers winning all 3, including a 23-14 win in the AFC Championship game.

The stakes are a little different this time around though, with both teams just fighting for a playoff spot. And Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a minor concussion last week at Kansas City is not expected to play. Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers will still present a difficult challenge for the Ravens. The Steelers come in to this game with the top ranked defense and a defense that confused Ravens QB Joe Flacco all of last year (1 TD, 5 INTs, 45% completions and 10 sacks in 3 games).

The way I see it, the Steelers don’t run the ball well enough (17^th in rushing yards) to win a game on the road in a hostile environment. Losing backup QB Charlie Batch last week just compounded the problem… the Steelers will be forced to start rookie Dennis Dixon, who has thrown 1 pass in his career.

The Ravens will come out in a close, defensive battled.

My Prediction: Steelers 10, Ravens 14

New England Patriots (7-3) @ New Orleans Saints (10-0)

The game of the year. Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees. Bill Belichick vs. Sean Payton. A team chasing regular season perfection against a team that achieved regular season perfection two years ago.

Let’s start with the offenses. The Saints rank 1^st in point scored; the Patriots 3^rd. The Saints rank 1^st in total offense; the Patriots right behind at 2^nd. The two teams do it slightly differently however. The Patriots do it mostly through the air with Tom Brady and co. 2^nd in the league in passing offense. Their run game is middle of the road (16^th), but they’ll need to mix that in to keep the Saints’ offense off the field as much as possible. The Saints feature a more balanced offensive attack, ranking 6^th in passing and 5^th in rushing.

I think the Patriots defense (2^nd in points, 7^th in yards) and turnover differential (+12) will prove to be critical in this game. The Saints are good in the turnover differential department as well (+10, 3^rd), but their defense has been mediocre, ranking 13^th in point allowed and 17^th in yards allowed. Factor in the Patriots decided edge in big game experience over the young Saints and I think the Patriots pull out a nail-biting victory, in what’s sure to be a raucous atmosphere.

My Prediction: Pats 34, Saints 31

The Rest of the Pack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-5)

My Prediction: Bucs 3, Falcons 27

Miami Dolphins (5-5) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7)

My Prediction: Dolphins 21, Bills 10

Cleveland Browns (1-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

My Prediction: Browns 10, Bengals 34

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) @ St. Louis Rams (1-9)

My Prediction: Seahawks 10, Rams 14

Carolina Panthers (4-6) @ New York Jets (8-1)

My Prediction: Panthers 17, Jets 14

Washington Redskins (3-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)

My Prediction: Redskins 10, Philadelphia 20

Indianapolis Colts (10-0) @ Houston Texans (5-5)

My Prediction: Colts 23, Texans 20

Kansas City Chiefs (3-7) @ San Diego Chargers (7-3)

My Prediction: Chiefs 7, San Diego 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

My Prediction: Jags 14, 49ers 17

Arizona Cardinals (7-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-6)

My Prediction: Cardinals 20, Titans 27

Chicago Bears (4-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-1)

My Prediction: Bears 14, Vikings 38

NFL: Week 11 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 77-50 (60.6%)

The Marquee Matchups

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) @ New York Giants (5-4)

Momentum changer. That’s the importance of this game here, as both teams have aspirations of making the playoffs. The Giants are only a game behind Dallas (with a home game remaining vs. Dallas) so their playoff hopes are not solely relying on getting the wild card. Atlanta, a full 4 games behind New Orleans, is putting all of their eggs in one basket; their only hope is the wild card.

The Falcons and Giants have had an interesting recent history, with the visiting team winning the last 12 meetings in the series; Atlanta winning 5 straight games at Giants Stadium. For their success to continue in Giants stadium, they will need better accuracy from QB Matt Ryan… who has thrown 8 INT’s in his last 4 games. The Giants despite some struggles in the secondary in recent weeks, rank #1 in total defense.

The key for the Giants will be using the running game to set up the pass. The Giants rank 7^th in rushing yards per game, but they have been sporadic running the ball during this 4 game losing streak, with only one game above 120 yards rushing. During the 5-0 start, the Giants had three games of over 150 yards rushing, including two games over 220 yards rushing.

The Giants will need to get back to pounding the football effectively if they want to win. And given that they are facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 25^th in the league against the rush, I think they will do just that.

My Prediction: Falcons 24, Giants 27

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

While there’s not a long history between these two franchises (only met 9 times, inc. the 06 playoffs), there’s always a rivalry sort of feel any time these two teams hook up, especially when they play in Baltimore. Of course the reason being for that is when then Colts owner Robert Irsay moved their beloved Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis in 1983.

History aside, this is also a compelling matchup on the field. After narrowly escaping in their last 3 games against the 49ers, Texans and more notably last week against the Patriots, Baltimore is one of the few remaining tests on Indy’s schedule, as their pursuit of perfection continues.

The key for Baltimore will be increased production from second year QB, Joe Flacco. Flacco has averaged just a 66 QB rating, with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s after throwing for 12 TD’s and a QB rating over 95 through the first 7 games. Flacco really struggled in a 31-3 loss at Indy last season, throwing 3 picks with no touchdowns. He figures to get a better look this time around against a Colts secondary that has struggled in recent weeks, giving up 300 yards passing in each of the past two weeks.

I see this game being a tight affair, but in the end, I think Indy’s run of luck runs out. They should have lost their last couple games, but managed to pull wins out. I don’t see them escaping this time against a hungry, desperate Baltimore team playing in front of a raucous crowd.

My Prediction: Colts 17, Ravens 30

The Rest of the Pack

Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

My Prediction: Redskins 3, Cowboys 24

Cleveland Browns (1-8) @ Detroit Lions (1-8)

My Prediction: Browns 13, Lions 19

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-4)

My Prediction: 49ers 14, Packers 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)

My Prediction: Steelers 27, Chiefs 7

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

My Prediction: Seahawks 13, Vikings 30

New Orleans Saints (9-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

My Prediction: Saints 34, Bucs 14

Buffalo Bills (3-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

My Prediction: Bills 14, Jags 24

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) @ St. Louis Rams (1-8)

My Prediction: Cards 41, Rams 14

San Diego Chargers (6-3) @ Denver Broncos (6-3)

My Prediction: Chargers 21, Broncos 17

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) @ Oakland Raiders (2-7)

My Prediction: Bengals 24, Raiders 10

New York Jets (4-5) @ New England Patriots (6-3)

My Prediction: Jets 10, Patriots 31

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) @ Chicago Bears (4-5)

My Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 17

Tennessee Titans (3-6) @ Houston Texans (5-4)

My Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 27