TheStuckeyReport: NFL: Week 4 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 20-12

The Marquee Matchups

Baltimore Ravens (3-0) @ New England Patriots (2-1)

Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, it’s hard to argue that there’s been a better team than the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore comes into this game with the 2^nd best offense in the league (pts and yards). The Ravens coasted in two of those victories, against the hapless Chiefs and Browns. They won a hard fought battle against the Chargers sandwiched between the two and this game figures to be no different.

After struggling through the first couple of weeks, the Patriots started to show signs of life in their week 3 dismantling of the Falcons, 26-10. The Pats offense still struggled in the Red Zone, scoring two touchdowns in 6 chances. Their defense, despite losing a lot of players to injury or retirement, has remained steady (7^th in points, 6^th in yards).

I see this game being a shootout. Baltimore’s defense, while still good, doesn’t appear to be as dominant as it has been in years’ past. And Brady should be better equipped to handle the Ravens’ blitzes, as he saw the same exact defense against the Jets. The Patriots have not lost at home with Brady in 17 games and that streak will be extended to 18.

My Prediction: Ravens 24, Pats 31

San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

This game matches up two familiar foes, as the Chargers face their long time nemesis, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers come in banged up, with safety Troy Polomalu out for the third cons. game and Willie Parker is not expected to play either.

Pittsburgh comes into this loss on the back of two straight losses; in both games they held at least a one score lead in the 4^th quarter (getting outscored 24-0 in the 4^th). The Steelers have not lost 3 in a row since Nov. 2006, when they were also defending champions.

History does not favor the Chargers, who have lost all 13 regular season meetings in the Steel City. The Chargers boast a huge passing attack, ranking 2^nd in the league in passing yards, but they’ve only turned that into 3 passing TD’s so far. But their running game is beyond putrid, ranking 31^st in the league in rushing yards (66).

Pittsburgh’s staple is their terrific defense and they’ve been good again this year, even without Polomalu, ranking 8^th in points allowed (16.7) and 8^th in yards (289). But for a team harassed QB’s all of last season (to the tune of 51 sacks, 2^nd in the league), they’ve only registered 5 sacks in 3 games. Getting consistent pressure on Philip Rivers with their blitz packages is going to be the key for the Steelers. And because their running game is non existent, it will allow the Steelers to aggressively pursue the quarterback.

Expect a low scoring affair similar to their regular season matchup last year (11-10 PITT). Expect a similar ending too.

My Prediction: Chargers 9, Steelers 12

New York Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0)

Offense vs. Defense. The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. Those words, in a nutshell, describe this week 4 clash between the Jets smothering defense and the Saints aerial assault.

Both teams come into this game with identical 3-0 records, but they are getting it done in entirely different ways. The Jets have done it with defense, Rex Ryan’s defense, having only given up 2 touchdowns through the first 3 games and ranking 2^nd in points allowed (11) and 3^rd in yards allowed (256).

The Saints’ offense could challenge the 2007 Patriots for the most prolific of all time, when it’s all said and done. They lead the league in scoring with a whopping 40 points per game and 438 yards of total offense. The Saints offense has been so dominant, that they’ve yet to even trail at any point this year. The Jets will need to run the ball effectively to keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands as much as possible.

Unfortunately for the Jets, I don’t see that happening on the road against the 5^th best rushing defense in the league. Mark Sanchez has been impressive in his rookie season thus far, but this will be his first test in a hostile environment on the road. Look for a key turnover or two to be the difference in this game.

My Prediction: Jets 21, Saints 31

The Rest of the Pack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) @ Washington Redskins (1-2)