TheStuckeyReport: NFL: Week 11 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 77-50 (60.6%)

The Marquee Matchups

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) @ New York Giants (5-4)

Momentum changer. That’s the importance of this game here, as both teams have aspirations of making the playoffs. The Giants are only a game behind Dallas (with a home game remaining vs. Dallas) so their playoff hopes are not solely relying on getting the wild card. Atlanta, a full 4 games behind New Orleans, is putting all of their eggs in one basket; their only hope is the wild card.

The Falcons and Giants have had an interesting recent history, with the visiting team winning the last 12 meetings in the series; Atlanta winning 5 straight games at Giants Stadium. For their success to continue in Giants stadium, they will need better accuracy from QB Matt Ryan… who has thrown 8 INT’s in his last 4 games. The Giants despite some struggles in the secondary in recent weeks, rank #1 in total defense.

The key for the Giants will be using the running game to set up the pass. The Giants rank 7^th in rushing yards per game, but they have been sporadic running the ball during this 4 game losing streak, with only one game above 120 yards rushing. During the 5-0 start, the Giants had three games of over 150 yards rushing, including two games over 220 yards rushing.

The Giants will need to get back to pounding the football effectively if they want to win. And given that they are facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 25^th in the league against the rush, I think they will do just that.

My Prediction: Falcons 24, Giants 27

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

While there’s not a long history between these two franchises (only met 9 times, inc. the 06 playoffs), there’s always a rivalry sort of feel any time these two teams hook up, especially when they play in Baltimore. Of course the reason being for that is when then Colts owner Robert Irsay moved their beloved Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis in 1983.

History aside, this is also a compelling matchup on the field. After narrowly escaping in their last 3 games against the 49ers, Texans and more notably last week against the Patriots, Baltimore is one of the few remaining tests on Indy’s schedule, as their pursuit of perfection continues.

The key for Baltimore will be increased production from second year QB, Joe Flacco. Flacco has averaged just a 66 QB rating, with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s after throwing for 12 TD’s and a QB rating over 95 through the first 7 games. Flacco really struggled in a 31-3 loss at Indy last season, throwing 3 picks with no touchdowns. He figures to get a better look this time around against a Colts secondary that has struggled in recent weeks, giving up 300 yards passing in each of the past two weeks.

I see this game being a tight affair, but in the end, I think Indy’s run of luck runs out. They should have lost their last couple games, but managed to pull wins out. I don’t see them escaping this time against a hungry, desperate Baltimore team playing in front of a raucous crowd.

My Prediction: Colts 17, Ravens 30

The Rest of the Pack

Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-3)