NFL: Week 12 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 91-54 (62.7%)

The Marquee Matchups

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

You’ll find it very hard to find a better rivalry game than this. You certainly won’t find a more physical, more violent game than when the Steelers and Ravens hook up. The Steelers and Ravens met 3 times last year, with the Steelers winning all 3, including a 23-14 win in the AFC Championship game.

The stakes are a little different this time around though, with both teams just fighting for a playoff spot. And Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a minor concussion last week at Kansas City is not expected to play. Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers will still present a difficult challenge for the Ravens. The Steelers come in to this game with the top ranked defense and a defense that confused Ravens QB Joe Flacco all of last year (1 TD, 5 INTs, 45% completions and 10 sacks in 3 games).

The way I see it, the Steelers don’t run the ball well enough (17^th in rushing yards) to win a game on the road in a hostile environment. Losing backup QB Charlie Batch last week just compounded the problem… the Steelers will be forced to start rookie Dennis Dixon, who has thrown 1 pass in his career.

The Ravens will come out in a close, defensive battled.

My Prediction: Steelers 10, Ravens 14

New England Patriots (7-3) @ New Orleans Saints (10-0)

The game of the year. Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees. Bill Belichick vs. Sean Payton. A team chasing regular season perfection against a team that achieved regular season perfection two years ago.

Let’s start with the offenses. The Saints rank 1^st in point scored; the Patriots 3^rd. The Saints rank 1^st in total offense; the Patriots right behind at 2^nd. The two teams do it slightly differently however. The Patriots do it mostly through the air with Tom Brady and co. 2^nd in the league in passing offense. Their run game is middle of the road (16^th), but they’ll need to mix that in to keep the Saints’ offense off the field as much as possible. The Saints feature a more balanced offensive attack, ranking 6^th in passing and 5^th in rushing.

I think the Patriots defense (2^nd in points, 7^th in yards) and turnover differential (+12) will prove to be critical in this game. The Saints are good in the turnover differential department as well (+10, 3^rd), but their defense has been mediocre, ranking 13^th in point allowed and 17^th in yards allowed. Factor in the Patriots decided edge in big game experience over the young Saints and I think the Patriots pull out a nail-biting victory, in what’s sure to be a raucous atmosphere.

My Prediction: Pats 34, Saints 31

The Rest of the Pack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-5)

My Prediction: Bucs 3, Falcons 27

Miami Dolphins (5-5) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7)

My Prediction: Dolphins 21, Bills 10

Cleveland Browns (1-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

My Prediction: Browns 10, Bengals 34

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) @ St. Louis Rams (1-9)

My Prediction: Seahawks 10, Rams 14

Carolina Panthers (4-6) @ New York Jets (8-1)

My Prediction: Panthers 17, Jets 14

Washington Redskins (3-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)

My Prediction: Redskins 10, Philadelphia 20

Indianapolis Colts (10-0) @ Houston Texans (5-5)

My Prediction: Colts 23, Texans 20

Kansas City Chiefs (3-7) @ San Diego Chargers (7-3)

My Prediction: Chiefs 7, San Diego 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

My Prediction: Jags 14, 49ers 17

Arizona Cardinals (7-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-6)

My Prediction: Cardinals 20, Titans 27

Chicago Bears (4-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-1)

My Prediction: Bears 14, Vikings 38

NFL: Week 11 Predictions

My 2009 NFL Record: 77-50 (60.6%)

The Marquee Matchups

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) @ New York Giants (5-4)

Momentum changer. That’s the importance of this game here, as both teams have aspirations of making the playoffs. The Giants are only a game behind Dallas (with a home game remaining vs. Dallas) so their playoff hopes are not solely relying on getting the wild card. Atlanta, a full 4 games behind New Orleans, is putting all of their eggs in one basket; their only hope is the wild card.

The Falcons and Giants have had an interesting recent history, with the visiting team winning the last 12 meetings in the series; Atlanta winning 5 straight games at Giants Stadium. For their success to continue in Giants stadium, they will need better accuracy from QB Matt Ryan… who has thrown 8 INT’s in his last 4 games. The Giants despite some struggles in the secondary in recent weeks, rank #1 in total defense.

The key for the Giants will be using the running game to set up the pass. The Giants rank 7^th in rushing yards per game, but they have been sporadic running the ball during this 4 game losing streak, with only one game above 120 yards rushing. During the 5-0 start, the Giants had three games of over 150 yards rushing, including two games over 220 yards rushing.

The Giants will need to get back to pounding the football effectively if they want to win. And given that they are facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 25^th in the league against the rush, I think they will do just that.

My Prediction: Falcons 24, Giants 27

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

While there’s not a long history between these two franchises (only met 9 times, inc. the 06 playoffs), there’s always a rivalry sort of feel any time these two teams hook up, especially when they play in Baltimore. Of course the reason being for that is when then Colts owner Robert Irsay moved their beloved Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis in 1983.

History aside, this is also a compelling matchup on the field. After narrowly escaping in their last 3 games against the 49ers, Texans and more notably last week against the Patriots, Baltimore is one of the few remaining tests on Indy’s schedule, as their pursuit of perfection continues.

The key for Baltimore will be increased production from second year QB, Joe Flacco. Flacco has averaged just a 66 QB rating, with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s after throwing for 12 TD’s and a QB rating over 95 through the first 7 games. Flacco really struggled in a 31-3 loss at Indy last season, throwing 3 picks with no touchdowns. He figures to get a better look this time around against a Colts secondary that has struggled in recent weeks, giving up 300 yards passing in each of the past two weeks.

I see this game being a tight affair, but in the end, I think Indy’s run of luck runs out. They should have lost their last couple games, but managed to pull wins out. I don’t see them escaping this time against a hungry, desperate Baltimore team playing in front of a raucous crowd.

My Prediction: Colts 17, Ravens 30

The Rest of the Pack

Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

My Prediction: Redskins 3, Cowboys 24

Cleveland Browns (1-8) @ Detroit Lions (1-8)

My Prediction: Browns 13, Lions 19

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-4)

My Prediction: 49ers 14, Packers 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)

My Prediction: Steelers 27, Chiefs 7

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

My Prediction: Seahawks 13, Vikings 30

New Orleans Saints (9-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

My Prediction: Saints 34, Bucs 14

Buffalo Bills (3-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

My Prediction: Bills 14, Jags 24

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) @ St. Louis Rams (1-8)

My Prediction: Cards 41, Rams 14

San Diego Chargers (6-3) @ Denver Broncos (6-3)

My Prediction: Chargers 21, Broncos 17

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) @ Oakland Raiders (2-7)

My Prediction: Bengals 24, Raiders 10

New York Jets (4-5) @ New England Patriots (6-3)

My Prediction: Jets 10, Patriots 31

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) @ Chicago Bears (4-5)

My Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 17

Tennessee Titans (3-6) @ Houston Texans (5-4)

My Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 27

Pistons Battle; furious rally falls just short

The Detroit Pistons found themselves in an all too familiar position Wednesday night – trailing by 20 points headed into the 4^th quarter in Portland. Just the previous night, the Pistons found themselves in a 25 point deficit to start the fourth, only to cut the lead to 6 late in the quarter and force the Lakers to bring back their starters to hold off a furious Pistons rally.

Employing an aggressive full court trapping defense (for the first time this year), the Pistons caught the Blazers off guard, missing 11 out of 14 shots and turning it over 5 times to allow the Pistons to cut the lead to one point, 78-77 with just over a minute remaining in the game. On the ensuing possession, Blake missed a three pointer, but rebounded his own miss and drained a second three point attempt to ice the game with 25 seconds remaining.

So the Pistons lost their third straight game (and second on the 4 game west coast trip) but there were some good things to take away from this game…

• Resiliency: This team just doesn’t give up, regardless of the score, and you have to appreciate that if you’re a Piston fan. Now, it’d be awfully nice if they started this games off a bit better and didn’t put themselves in huge holes early, but the fighting spirit is a nice change here. The old Pistons core, while a much better team, would have mailed it in on nights like this and lost the game by 20+ points.

• A New Lineup? Kuester used a lineup in the 4^th quarter that we had not seen this year, going away from the traditional 3 guard lineup of Gordon, Stuckey, Bynum alongside Villanueva and Ben Wallace/Kwame Brown. Kuester went away from that last night, going with a Big Ball lineup of Stuckey, Daye, JJ/Summer, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Wallace… a lineup that produced a 27-8 run, holding Portland to just 3 field goals in that stretch, as they cut a 20 point lead into just a 1 point deficit with 1:05 remaining. Stuckey was the biggest contributor in that 4^th quarter comeback, scoring 12 points and dishing out 4 dimes. The strong finish somewhat offsets the awful shooting night (6 for 21). It’ll be interesting to see if Kuester goes to this lineup (or another big lineup) more often in games. I, for one, am not a huge fan of the 3 guard lineup. Our offense just becomes too predictable with the 3 guards running isolations and side pick and rolls; not enough body movement as the ball tends to stick on one side of the floor.

• Full Court Press: I loved the chaos the full court press and trapping created last night. We’ve seen this used in spurts this year, but the Pistons used the full court trap nearly the entire 4^th quarter and it really confused the Blazers and caused them to play timidly, turning the ball over 5 times during that stretch. The Pistons were behind by a lot and had to use the trap to generate more possessions, but I’d like to see them employ the aggressive tactic more often. This team is young and athletic enough to use it a lot. The full court and half court traps was a big staple in the 2004 Pistons historically dominant defense. It’d be nice to see it used more often this season.

Next Game: @ Utah Jazz, Sat, Nov. 21^st, 9:00 EST