NBA 2009-10 Season Preview:

Southeast Divison

Team: Orlando Magic

Last year’s Record: 59-23 (1^st in Southeast, 3^rd in East)

Offensive Rating (last year): 109.2 (11^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 101.9 (1^st)

Key Acquisitions: Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, Matt Barnes

Key Losses: Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, Hedo Turkoglu

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Jameer Nelson	Anthony Johnson
SG	Vince Carter	Mickael Pietrus
SF	Rashard Lewis	Matt Barnes
PF	Brandon Bass	Ryan Anderson
C	Dwight Howard	Marcin Gortat

Season Outlook: The Orlando Magic surprised a lot of people last year, by posting their best season in franchise history, making their 2^nd finals appearance and winning their first finals game. They beat the defending champion Celtics (albeit without KG) and championship favorite Cleveland Cavaliers en route to the finals, and on paper they have appeared to have improved their roster this offseason.

The Magic’s formula to winning 59 games last year was simple – spread the floor with 3 point snipers and allow Howard (an improving passer out of the post) to go to work on his man or pass out of the double team to an open spot up shooter. They played defense too, an often overlooked part of their game, leading the league in defensive efficiency.

On paper, it would look as though the Magic improved their roster. For starters, they’ll be getting a healthy Jameer Nelson back, who was an all star level player before he tore his labrum in early February. They added Vince Carter, who will certainly give them more punch at the two guard spot then what they had last year and Brandon Bass is a versatile forward who can shoot that 15 foot jumper and is a good at cleaning up on the offensive boards.

But I also value chemistry. That’s what the Magic had over the other teams last year – they loved playing with one another. And while Turkolgu was overpaid in Toronto, he fit the Magic’s system to a T. He was the playmaker down the stretch for a team that went to the finals. Now they’re relying on Vince Carter to be the go to guy in the clutch. Let me just say, the previous teams who gave Carter the ball at the end of games didn’t advance very far in the playoffs. And now he is older, rarely attacks the rim anymore due to lost athleticism and shoots even more long range jumpers.

Expect a slight decline in performance from Orlando in the postseason, but they are still the runaway favorites in the Southeast and a virtual lock for a top 3 seed.

2009-10 Prediction: 57-25 (1^st in Southeast, 2^nd in East)

Team: Miami Heat

Last year’s Record: 43-39 (3^rd in Southeast, 5^th in East)

Offensive Rating (last year): 107.8 (20^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 107.6 (12^th)

Key Acquisitions: Quetin Richardson

Key Losses: None

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Mario Chalmers	Chris Quinn
SG	Dwyane Wade	Daequan Cook
SF	Michael Beasley	Quetin Richardson
PF	Udonis Haslem	Joel Anthony
C	Jermaine O’Neal	Jamaal Magloire

Season Outlook: The Dwyane Wade show. That was the story of the Heat’s 2009 season, as Wade led the league in scoring 30.2 points per game and also tying his career high in assists (7.5 per game).

After losing a tough 7 game opening round series against the Hawks, Miami was the center of many offseason rumors. They started with Iverson for a couple weeks, but Riley was (wisely) only willing to offer him a 1 year vets mimimum contract. Those rumors faded quickly.

Then there was speculation that the Jazz were looking to unload Boozer, having just resigned Paul Millsap. The rumor was Dorrell Wright and Udonis Haslem for Boozer. Boozer even expressed his desire to play with his good friend, Dwyane Wade. But Riley came out later and said nothing was going on.

Odom was then actively pursued by the Heat, after his multiyear offer was withdrawn from the Lakers. Wade was even on twitter trying to recruit Odom back to south beach. But, even after ESPN had reported that Miami and Odom were close to a deal, that one fell through and he rejoined the Lakers.

So the Heat did not make any significant moves to improve their 2009-10 roster. The positive way to look at it is that they will have significant cap space for next summer – the second most in the league as things are currently constituted.

So maybe patience is a virtue? We have no idea how it will shape up in the long run, but for now this team will not go any further than the first round of the playoffs. And if Wade misses any significant time with injury (which has been the case 2 of the last 3 years), Miami will not even contend for a playoff spot.

2009-10 Prediction: 42-40 (4^th in Southeast, 7^th in East)

Team: Atlanta Hawks

Last year’s Record: 47-35 (2^nd in Southeast, 4^th in East)

Offensive Rating (last year): 109.3 (10^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 107.6 (11^th)

Key Acquisitions: Jamal Crawford, Joe Smith, Jason Collins

Key Losses: Flip Murray

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Mike Bibby	Jeff Teague
SG	Joe Johnson	Jamal Crawford
SF	Marvin Williams	Maurice Evans
PF	Josh Smith	Joe Smith
C	Al Horford	Zaza Pachulia

Season Outlook: The Hawks have been steadily improving since the 2005 season, starting with 13 wins to 47 wins and home court in the first round last year. Last year they took out Wade and the Heat in 7 games, before falling to the Cavaliers in 4.

The Hawks retained all of their core players from last season and added some veteran depth to that front line, in Joe Smith and Jason Collins. I really liked the move to bring Jamaal Crawford in, replacing Flip Murray. I think he’s perfectly suited to that gunner 6^th man role off the bench, ala Jason Terry in Dallas.

Their bench is pretty solid with Pachulia, Smith and Evans up front and Crawford and recently drafted point guard Jeff Teague, who figures to take over for Bibby as the starter in a year or two.

The Hawks are a good solid team and are likely to make it to the second round of the playoffs again. But that’s as far as they’ll go as Cleveland, Boston and Orlando are still the class of the eastern conference

2009-10 Prediction: 49-33 (2^nd in Southeast, 4^th in East)

Team: Washington Wizards

Last year’s Record: 19-63 (5^th in Southeast, 15^th in East)

Offensive Rating (last year): 105.4 (26^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 113.6 (29^th)

Key Acquisitions: Mike Miller, Randy Foye

Key Losses: Antonio Daniels, Darius Songalia, Etan Thomas

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Gilbert Arenas	Randy Foye
SG	Mike Miller	Nick Young
SF	Caron Butler	Dominic McGuire
PF	Antawn Jamison	Andray Blatche
C	Brendan Haywood	JaVale McGee

Season Outlook: Over the last few years, no team has been hit harder with injuries than the Wizards from Washington. They’ve had a talented core for years now, but they just can’t seem to stay on the court. The Wizards changed head coaches just 11 games into last year, adding to the chaos. Arenas in particular has been a big disappointment since signing the huge $111 million dollar contract extension in July of 2008, playing in only two games last season (after playing in only 13 games in 08).

Obviously this team is banking on Arenas being healthy, but if he’s not they do have some form of insurance in Randy Foye, acquired from Minnesota in a trade. This team will have no trouble scoring, boasting 3 guys that can get 30 points on any given night (Arenas, Butler, Jamison), sharpshooting Mike Miller and an explosive scorer off the bench in Nick Young, and solid interior presences of Blatche and McGee. Flip Saunders (head coach) is also known for his complex offensive schemes and that should greatly improve an offense that ranked just 26^th in efficiency last year.

Defense may still be an issue for this club as it often has been over the past few years. But I think they’re talented and deep enough to give Atlanta a run for home court advantage in the first round.

2009-10 Prediction: 47-35 (3^rd in Southeast, 5^th in East)

Team: Charlotte Bobcats

Last year’s Record: 35-47 (4^th in Southeast, 10^th in East)

Offensive Rating (last year): 104.7 (27^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 106.1 (7^th)

Key Acquisitions: Tyson Chandler

Key Losses: Emeka Okafor

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Raymond Felton	D.J. Augustin
SG	Raja Bell	Gerald Henderson
SF	Gerald Wallace	Vlad Radmanovic
PF	Boris Diaw	Derrick Brown
C	Tyson Chandler	Desgana Diop

Season Outlook: Play together, defend and rebound the basketball. Sound familiar? It’s long been Larry Brown’s philosophy and over the course of the season, it was instilled in this young team. They were extremely inconsistent offensively, ranking last in points scored (93.6), 19^th in field goal % (45.5) and 24^th in three pointers made (6.0).

The Bobcats did play defense though, ranking 9^th in points allowed (94.9), 7^th in defensive efficiency (106.1) and they were excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking 5^th in forced TO % (.145).

I liked the direction this team was going in and I’m glad they decided to stay away drom the cancer that is Allen Iverson (and they were involved in many of those rumors). But I don’t like the Chandler-Okafor swap. They’re similar players, but Okafor is just better in every phase of the game, particularly post offense and defense. This move was clearly a financial one, as Okafor has three years left on his contract after this year, compared to only one year on Chandler’s deal. So they may make out well in the long run, but I don’t like this move in the immediate future.

I don’t really see a spike in Charlotte’s performance this year. They will challenge for a playoff spot, but will fall a few games short.

2009-10 Prediction: 36-46 (5^th in Southeast, 13^th in East)