NBA 2009-10 Season Preview

Southwest Division

Team: San Antonio Spurs

Last year’s Record: 54-28 (1^st in Southeast, 3^rd in West)

Offensive Rating (last year): 108.5 (13^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 104.3 (5^th)

Key Acquisitions: Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess

Key Losses: Bruce Bowen

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Tony Parker	George Hill
SG	Roger Mason	Manu Ginobili
SF	Richard Jefferson	Michael Finley
PF	Antonio McDyess	Matt Bonner
C	Tim Duncan	Theo Ratliff

Season Outlook: The Spurs are the epitome of consistency in the NBA. Last year marked their 10^th consecutive 50 win season, but their season was cut prematurely in the playoffs, as Duncan lost for the first time in his career in the first round (losing in 5 to Dallas).

The Spurs did some retooling this offseason, acquiring all star caliber forward Richard Jefferson from the Bucks and signing free agents McDyess and Ratliff to bolster their frontcourt. Though they are getting older, the Spurs still boast (arguably) the best 3 player tandem in the league in Duncan, Parker and Ginobili.

The Spurs remained a solid, top 5 defensive team last year, but they’ve struggled to score points the last couple years, mainly due to injuries to the likes of Ginobili. Richardson and Jefferson will add to their scoring punch and if Ginobili can manage to staty healthy, they should field their most explosive offensive team in years. And as long as Duncan is the anchor in the middle, the Spurs will continue to get stops defensively.

2009-10 Prediction: 58-24 (1^st in Southwest, 2^nd in West)

Team: Dallas Mavericks

Last year’s Record: 50-32 (3^rd in Southwest, 6^th in West)

Offensive Rating (last year): 110.5 (5^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 108.4 (17^th)

Key Acquisitions: Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden

Key Losses: Brandon Bass, Jerry Stackhouse, Antoine Wright

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Jason Kidd	Jose Juan Barea
SG	Josh Howard	Jason Terry
SF	Shawn Marion	Shawne Williams
PF	Dirk Nowitzki	Drew Gooden
C	Eric Dampier	Nathan Jawai

Season Outlook: The 2009 Mavericks again won 50 games (for the 9^th straight year) and knocked out long time rival Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, before being eliminated by Denver in 5.

The Mavs did make a splash in the offseason by doing a sign and trade for Shawn Marion. Marion has struggled the past couple years to match his level of productivity that he enjoyed in Phoenix, but with another all star point guard in Kidd to feed him the ball in transition, he should again see a rise in his stats.

The Mavericks’ strength is their backcourt play, with Kidd and Howard being paired up and Juan Berea and 6^th Man of the year Jason Terry forming a dynamic scoring duo off the bench. Their frontcourt is still pretty soft and thing and that’s what prevents them from hanging with the elite teams of the western conference. However, this team is still a firm playoff team and may improve on last year’s win total of 50.

2009-10 Prediction: 52-30 (3rd in Southwest, 6th in West)

Team: New Orleans Hornets

Last year’s Record: 49-33 (4^th in Southwest, 7^th in West)

Offensive Rating (last year): 108.7 (12^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 107.0 (9^th)

Key Acquisitions: Emeka Okafor

Key Losses: Tyson Chandler, Antonio Daniels, Darius Songaila

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Chris Paul	Darren Collison
SG	Morris Peterson	Devin Brown
SF	Julian Wright	James Posey
PF	David West	Peja Stojakovic
C	Emeka Okafor	Hilton Armstrong

Season Outlook: Following their franchise breakout year in 2008, the Hornets fell short of duplicating that effort last year. The Hornets still had a solid 49 win campaign, but unlike the previous year (when they knocked off Dallas and pushed the defending champion Spurs to 7), the Hornets did not show any tenacity in the playoffs, getting sent home in 5 quick games by the Nuggets (including an embarrassing 58 point loss at home in game 3).

The Hornets made a big splash by doing a straight up swap – Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. I really like this move for the Hornets. Now don’t get me wrong, Chandler is a fine player and he and Chris Paul worked that lob to the rim alley-oop play to perfection. He defends the post well and he rebounds. But Okafor gives them all those same things, only he does it better and he has some offensive skills in the post. Chandler had that great 2008, but he’s otherwise been inconsistent and has missed a lot of games to injury over the years. Okafor is far more reliable, having played in all 82 games each of the last 2 years.

I think that move alone improves the Hornets quite a bit. They needed someone who can battle the elite forwards of the western conference (Stoudemire, Dirk, Duncan) and pairing him with an offensive weapon in David West should further improve his game.

If the Hornets can get any sort of production from Peja Stojakovic off the bench this year, I think they can compete for home court advantage in the West.

2009-10 Prediction: 54-28 (2^nd in Southwest, 4th in West)

Team: Houston Rockets

Last year’s Record: 53-29 (2^nd in Southwest, 5^th in West)

Offensive Rating (last year): 108.4 (14^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 104.0 (4^th)

Key Acquisitions: Trevor Ariza

Key Losses: Ron Artest, Yao Ming

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Aaron Brooks	Kyle Lowry
SG	Tracy McGrady	Chase Budinger
SF	Trevor Ariza	Shane Battier
PF	Luis Scola	Carl Landry
C	David Anderson	Joey Dorsey

Season Outlook: The Rockets made so many strides last season, finally winning a playoff series and pushing the eventual champion Lakers to 7 games – which no other team was able to do last postseason.

Yao went down in game 3 against the Lakers with a broken foot and he will miss the entire 2009-10 season. And to make matters worse, Tracy McGrady will be out till at least November 23^rd where he will have another MRI on his knee. The Rockets also lost free agent Ron Artest to the Lakers, replacing him with former Laker Trevor Ariza. I like Ariza and I think he’s a fine role player on a good team that has several options. But on this decimated Rockets team where he will need to be more of a featured offensive player, I don’t think he can be nearly as successful.

On paper, this looks to be a really rough season for the Rockets. I won’t completely right them off, since they’ve proven to be a resilient bunch over the years (the 22 game winning streak where both Yao and McGrady missed several games comes to mind).

I think the things that Rockets fans should watch for this year are the continued development of Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola, since they figure to be in this team’s long term plans. Also, watch out for rookie Chase Budinger (acquired on draft night from the Pistons), a long athletic guard that is lights out from three, who figures to get a chance to earn playing time with McGrady’s injury situation.

2009-10 Prediction: 34-48 (4^th in Southwest,11th in West )

Team: Memphis Grizzlies

Last year’s Record: 24-58 (5^th in Southwest, 12^th in West)

Offensive Rating (last year):103.5 (28^th)

Defensive Rating (last year): 109.5 (21^st)

Key Acquisitions: Allen Iverson, Zach Randolph

Key Losses: Quentin Richardson

Projected Lineup:

Position	Starter	Bench
PG	Mike Conley	Mike Taylor
SG	O.J. Mayo	Allen Iverson
SF	Rudy Gay	Sam Young
PF	Zach Randolph	Darrell Arthur
C	Marc Gasol	Hasheem Thabeet

Season Outlook: The Grizzlies have long been a disappointing franchise and that trend continued during the 08-09 NBA season. They’ve been on of the busier teams this offseason though, picking up former all star Iverson and a 20-10 big man in Zach Randolph.

To the casual basketball fan, those would seem like good basketball moves. But I don’t believe they are for a number of reasons. With Iverson, I believe he is washed up. I watched nearly every game he played in a Pistons uniform last year (before he quit on the team) and he just doesn’t have it anymore. He’s lost a step offensively, can’t get to the foul line like he used to, and he’s as bad as he’s ever been defensively. He’s also a well known team cancer and killer and for a team that has young guns like the Grizzlies have, that could really have an adverse effect on their young players. I think it’s a telling sign that it took so long for any team to sign him… and no contending team was even remotely interested in Iverson.

This team’s record should improve just due to the fact that it’s tough to loss more than 58 games in a season. And Mayo is a rising star in this league and he should continue to grow as a player. But they will still lurk from the depths of the western conference.

2009-10 Prediction: 31-51 (5^th in Southwest, 12^th in West)